The acetone settlement for October was unanimously settled at $0.545 per pound. This is a decrease of $0.02 per pound from September’s settlement. This is usually the time of year when things get quiet. Will 2024 follow the trend?
The refinery grade propylene (RGP) movement for the latest 45-day volume weighted average was down $0.02 per pound from the previous pricing window. Since the October settlement, RGP has trended downwards. Pipeline is now assessed around $0.15 per pound while railcar deals are seen at $0.32 per pound. Polymer grade propylene (PGP) has also been bearish. The latest PGP trades have been completed at $0.365 per pound. At the time of this writing, all propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units are operating. When all PDH units are operating, it’s tough for PGP to be bullish.
October imports came in at approximately 15,000 MT’s. Germany and Taiwan are the responsible parties for most of this volume. We expect November and December to be strong months for imports as well with Asian pricing still very much competitive to the USA despite expensive vessel rates. US acetone exports continue to be negligible.
Phenol demand remains weak despite another rate cut of 0.25% from the Feds announced earlier this month. The expectation is 1H 2025 won’t see any meaningful uptick in phenol demand, leaving acetone on the tight to balanced end during this time. All US producers are operational at the time of this writing.
We called for a decrease of at least $0.025 per pound for October. A very narrow miss for us. For November’s US acetone settlement, we expect a drop of at least $0.02 per pound. Happy Thanksgiving week to all!