October 29th, 2025
The acetone settlement for September was completed at $0.455 per pound. This is a decrease of $0.0075 per pound from the August settlement. October has been rather quiet with turnarounds on both the supply and demand side.
The refinery grade propylene (RGP) market has remained “officially” quiet over the course of October. However, we have caught wind of significantly lower trades from the last reported railcar deal in October (reported in September) at $0.27 per pound. This would fall in line with the weak polymer grade propylene (PGP) over October. Trades hovered around $0.30 per pound as we began this month, but we saw PGP go as low as $0.245 per pound. Currently, trades are being reported a couple of cents higher. The October PGP settlement is not complete at this time.
Acetone imports in September were once again weak at 3,900 metric tons. We expect some cargos from Europe to arrive in Q4 of this year. The acetone picture across the Atlantic is desperate as a lot of distressed Asian material has reached into Europe. Asian pricing has been in decline since February, where we saw just a minor bump up in pricing. More phenol/acetone production in Asia is slated to come online even before the end of 2025 (and more in 2026).
The picture has not changed on the demand side of things. We have heard phenol demand going into 2026 is a less than ideal picture with consumers not expecting anything different from 2025. Until construction and automotive pick up, we don’t expect operating rates for domestic phenol/acetone units to adjust. What we do know is that both phenol and acetone cannot both be going poorly for a long time….then rationalization will occur. We expect producers to hold strong benzene premiums for the phenol contracts amidst an ever-competitive acetone market with the threat of imports continually lurking.
There is a chance for an October USA acetone settlement to not occur with some major buyers and sellers on turnarounds. However, if there is an October settlement, we would predict a drop of at least $0.02 per pound on weak propylene. Happy Halloween all!
